Global Hot Spots

I was attending a dinner function where someone asked what were the thoughts about the international relations between India and Pakistan? For those unfamiliar the two countries are very antagonistic towards each other and have a history of skirmishes that make the Cold War look tame. To complicate matters, both countries have significant nuclear arsenals. Relations between the two countries are very hot, and while a nuclear exchange is unlikely, it is not impossible. In addition, Pakistan has several unstable regions within their country that are essentially ruled by religiously fundamentalist driven warlords.

Both countries are extremely populous, each more so than the US. It is estimated that hundred of millions could die due to a nuclear exchange. This is not even counting the long term effects of nuclear fallout and its complications. For example, could trade winds carry the nuclear fallout to China or Japan? In addition, could so many nuclear devices go off in a relatively concentrated area have an impact on the earth’s orbit. Before you shrug that concern off, it should be noted that the US didn’t test one, that is one, nuclear bomb because of the fear that it could significantly alter the Earth’s orbit.

And we didn’t even bring up North Korea.

Why I bring this up, is that many people in my industry try to predict the economy, I don’t see any accounting of what to do if the aforementioned concern actually happens.